In case you don't know, Netflix runs a web-based hard-copy DVD business. They are considering online downloads but they, and many commentators, don't think that the current business model will fall apart anytime soon.
Now how would you analyse that? You could do a SWOT. You could do an environmental assessment. You could consider core competence. Let's just do some of that now.
They are strong with online presence and do a great job at getting DVDs out to customers and back. So they could leverage that online presence to go for downloads, but the movie companies want to sell DVDs, not rent 'em., so that could be a problem. You need to have a usage limit or a time-lock of some sort if you do rent 'em out by download. Still, it's do-able.
What about threats? Bigger capacity DVDs may mean more business, or multiple movies per DVD - which is possibly less business or less revenue per disc anyway. Kiosks that burn single copies are a threat. Downloads are obviously a threat, but are restricted by download speed. Now if that speed limit is broken by Internet-over-powerline - or any other technology - then that could be serious. It would have to be super-fast, however, or super-easy. That's either a lot of bandwidth or some means to pre-load much of the content to customer's machines before they select it. That's do-able, too.
Environmental threats include the cost of fuel (affecting delivery cost) - which is sure to rise.
Now Netflix are thinking no real threat for 5 years and they expect to be doing good business in 15 years time. With what you know about the speed of change in IT, and the imminent arrival of WiMax and IP-over-powerline, what do you think?
Forbes has a nice overview of Netflix and the threats to its business plan
here.