Unlike the crackpot, loony conspiracy theorists and the conflicted, self-interested right-wing old-media columnists I tend to believe the numbers, especially when they come from so many sources over so many years. In fact it just becomes more obvious that things are a-changing, climate-wise. Open a window and or a door and see for yourself. Even if you doubt that humanity is to blame (and there’s plenty of evidence to say it is) we still have to do something. Soon. Like right now.

I’ve been following this subject (global warming theory) since the mid-70′s and although I didn’t rate it a pressing issue at the time (I may have scoffed, to be honest) the evidence was pretty convincing by the end of the ’80s. And it was even more compelling by the end of the ’90s. Coupled with the coming of “peak oil” it was quite obvious that we should rein in our fossil fuel dependence, cut down on resource waste generally and look as a global society towards a more sustainable way of life.

And now another 10 years have passed and we are still tied to coal, gas and oil. Indeed we (in Australia at least, if not the developed world in general) allow the big miners free rein to lobby, bully and coerce our Governments to do anything but the right thing. Are we collectively blind, or plain stupid? No matter how you look at it the time for action is here, if it isn’t already too late…

Weather News – Climate check-up ‘screams world is warming’

A report on the world’s climate has confirmed that 2009 was one of Australia’s hottest years on record and provides more evidence of global warming.

Three hundred scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association compiled the report, which the association’s data centre chief Deke Arndt says paints a compelling picture.

“It’s basically the annual check-up that looks at the year that ended in a climate perspective and so you can kind of think of that as we all go to the doctor for our annual check-up,” Mr Arndt said.

“But because 2009 was the end of a decade we wanted to take stock of a longer-term view.”

The list of last year’s extreme weather events includes a flood in Brazil that left 376,000 people homeless, heavy rainfall in England that damaged 1,500 properties and three intense heat waves in Australia, one of them coinciding with the Victorian bushfires that killed 173 people.

South Australia and New South Wales had their warmest year on record as la nina conditions changed to el nino.

Maximum temperatures were generally above normal throughout Australia, adding up to the second hottest year since temperature started being record in 1910.

Mr Arndt says the signs of global warming are undeniable.

“Each of the last three decades has been substantially warmer than the decade before it,” he said.

“On a decade scale, that is very clear. The 1980s was the warmest decade on record as of December 31, 1989, but every single year in the 90s was warmer than that decade’s average temperature.”

NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

Global Warming — Research Issues

The increase in greenhouse gases caused by human activity is often cited as one of the major causes of global warming. These greenhouse gases reabsorb heat reflected from the Earth’s surface, thus trapping the heat in our atmosphere. This natural process is essential for life on Earth because it plays an important role in regulating the Earth’s temperature. However, over the last several hundred years, humans have been artificially increasing the concentration of these gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane in the Earth’s atmosphere. These gases build up and prevent additional thermal radiation from leaving the Earth, thereby trapping excess heat.

Unlike the crackpot, loony conspiracy theorists and the conflicted, self-interested right-wing old-media columnists I tend to believe the numbers, especially when they come from so many sources over so many years. In fact it just becomes more obvious that things are a-changing, climate-wise. Open a window and or a door and see for yourself. Even if you doubt that humanity is to blame (and there’s plenty of evidence to say it is) we still have to do something. Soon. Like right now.

I’ve been following this subject (global warming theory) since the mid-70′s and although I didn’t rate it a pressing issue at the time (I may have scoffed, to be honest) the evidence was pretty convincing by the end of the ’80s. And it was even more compelling by the end of the ’90s. Coupled with the coming of “peak oil” it was quite obvious that we should rein in our fossil fuel dependence, cut down on resource waste generally and look as a global society towards a more sustainable way of life.

And now another 10 years have passed and we are still tied to coal, gas and oil. Indeed we (in Australia at least, if not the developed world in general) allow the big miners free rein to lobby, bully and coerce our Governments to do anything but the right thing. Are we collectively blind, or plain stupid? No matter how you look at it the time for action is here, if it isn’t already too late…

Weather News – Climate check-up ‘screams world is warming’

A report on the world’s climate has confirmed that 2009 was one of Australia’s hottest years on record and provides more evidence of global warming.

Three hundred scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association compiled the report, which the association’s data centre chief Deke Arndt says paints a compelling picture.

“It’s basically the annual check-up that looks at the year that ended in a climate perspective and so you can kind of think of that as we all go to the doctor for our annual check-up,” Mr Arndt said.

“But because 2009 was the end of a decade we wanted to take stock of a longer-term view.”

The list of last year’s extreme weather events includes a flood in Brazil that left 376,000 people homeless, heavy rainfall in England that damaged 1,500 properties and three intense heat waves in Australia, one of them coinciding with the Victorian bushfires that killed 173 people.

South Australia and New South Wales had their warmest year on record as la nina conditions changed to el nino.

Maximum temperatures were generally above normal throughout Australia, adding up to the second hottest year since temperature started being record in 1910.

Mr Arndt says the signs of global warming are undeniable.

“Each of the last three decades has been substantially warmer than the decade before it,” he said.

“On a decade scale, that is very clear. The 1980s was the warmest decade on record as of December 31, 1989, but every single year in the 90s was warmer than that decade’s average temperature.”

NOAA – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record According to Scientists in 48 Countries

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the report defines 10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising: air temperature over land, sea-surface temperature, air temperature over oceans, sea level, ocean heat, humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. Three indicators are declining: Arctic sea ice, glaciers and spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

Global Warming — Research Issues

The increase in greenhouse gases caused by human activity is often cited as one of the major causes of global warming. These greenhouse gases reabsorb heat reflected from the Earth’s surface, thus trapping the heat in our atmosphere. This natural process is essential for life on Earth because it plays an important role in regulating the Earth’s temperature. However, over the last several hundred years, humans have been artificially increasing the concentration of these gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane in the Earth’s atmosphere. These gases build up and prevent additional thermal radiation from leaving the Earth, thereby trapping excess heat.

What a business to be in: Mining. Prospecting takes effort and cost and of course you need to buy the rights and licences and build infrastructure to get it out of the ground and move the ore or oil or whatever to a port or a local customer. So it’s not a short-term play, is it? It’s a long-term investment – 5, 10 even 20 years. Indeed mining companies use net present value (or NPV) to assess the relative value of competing proposals. NPV provides an estimate of  the future value of any investment for which there is an expected cost and subsequent income stream; it’s a way to fairly assess what a mine or other investment will be worth over time. Assumptions are made in that calculation that take into account tax regimes, political stability and variables like interest and exchange rates. That’s to say that risk is built into the NPV.

Given that the Australian Government’s “great big new tax” is not at all new – it’s been flagged for years – and that the risk has always been there we can assume it was factored in for at least the last 2 years, probably waaay more. If mining companies haven’t done their due diligence on this I’d be very surprised. Very, very surprised. Indeed I’d be re-thinking share ownership in such grossly incompetent companies right now. But let’s face it, they are neither incompetent nor unaware. They are just self-interested.

And with all of the fuss made by the miners and the Federal Opposition to the introduction of what has been generally assessed by economists as a reasonable and fair resource rent tax that addresses the cyclical nature of commodity prices, guess what? The Aussie dollar has fallen. By strange coincidence a weaker dollar means that payments made to Aussie miners in appreciating currencies will now be worth more. So they as exporters get the benefit of soaring commodity prices (remembering that their mining costs are generally quite fixed, so this is where “super profit” comes into it) as well as a falling Aussie Dollar. In contrast of course imports are now more expensive because of the falling dollar. Importers will now suffer declines as exporters rub their hands.

No wonder miners are campaigning so hard. If the government caves in they win and if they keep up the utterly deceitful lobbying they win again. Worse case, they pay a fairer share of tax. Of course many other factors are driving the dollar down, most importanly being the relative strength of the $US. But it all helps, doesn’t it?

The last point to be made (by me, anyway) is that the cost of these mining projects doesn’t just fall on the miners. They will lobby hard for the State and Federal governments to pick up as much infrastructure cost as they can get away with… things like railways, roads and ports – even the growth of whole towns – are often funded by the taxpayer, not the miners. Yes there are exceptions but not many. Mines may be a boon to a local community and generate jobs when times are good but they generate huge costs, too. And what happens when the mine inevitably closes? The people lose their jobs and incomes and the supporting infrastructure is left where it is… often as a ghost town. So what exactly do these miners want? A free ride?   

Here’s a tip, buy mining shares whilst the boom is on. And get out before the next bust.

Trade balance swings to surplus

The recent sharp decline in the Australian dollar will also be a relief for manufacturing exporters, and is even a positive for mining earnings since so many commodities are priced in US dollars. The local currency fell 10 per cent against its US counterpart last month.

What a business to be in: Mining. Prospecting takes effort and cost and of course you need to buy the rights and licences and build infrastructure to get it out of the ground and move the ore or oil or whatever to a port or a local customer. So it’s not a short-term play, is it? It’s a long-term investment – 5, 10 even 20 years. Indeed mining companies use net present value (or NPV) to assess the relative value of competing proposals. NPV provides an estimate of  the future value of any investment for which there is an expected cost and subsequent income stream; it’s a way to fairly assess what a mine or other investment will be worth over time. Assumptions are made in that calculation that take into account tax regimes, political stability and variables like interest and exchange rates. That’s to say that risk is built into the NPV.

Given that the Australian Government’s “great big new tax” is not at all new – it’s been flagged for years – and that the risk has always been there we can assume it was factored in for at least the last 2 years, probably waaay more. If mining companies haven’t done their due diligence on this I’d be very surprised. Very, very surprised. Indeed I’d be re-thinking share ownership in such grossly incompetent companies right now. But let’s face it, they are neither incompetent nor unaware. They are just self-interested.

And with all of the fuss made by the miners and the Federal Opposition to the introduction of what has been generally assessed by economists as a reasonable and fair resource rent tax that addresses the cyclical nature of commodity prices, guess what? The Aussie dollar has fallen. By strange coincidence a weaker dollar means that payments made to Aussie miners in appreciating currencies will now be worth more. So they as exporters get the benefit of soaring commodity prices (remembering that their mining costs are generally quite fixed, so this is where “super profit” comes into it) as well as a falling Aussie Dollar. In contrast of course imports are now more expensive because of the falling dollar. Importers will now suffer declines as exporters rub their hands.

No wonder miners are campaigning so hard. If the government caves in they win and if they keep up the utterly deceitful lobbying they win again. Worse case, they pay a fairer share of tax. Of course many other factors are driving the dollar down, most importanly being the relative strength of the $US. But it all helps, doesn’t it?

The last point to be made (by me, anyway) is that the cost of these mining projects doesn’t just fall on the miners. They will lobby hard for the State and Federal governments to pick up as much infrastructure cost as they can get away with… things like railways, roads and ports – even the growth of whole towns – are often funded by the taxpayer, not the miners. Yes there are exceptions but not many. Mines may be a boon to a local community and generate jobs when times are good but they generate huge costs, too. And what happens when the mine inevitably closes? The people lose their jobs and incomes and the supporting infrastructure is left where it is… often as a ghost town. So what exactly do these miners want? A free ride?   

Here’s a tip, buy mining shares whilst the boom is on. And get out before the next bust.

Trade balance swings to surplus

The recent sharp decline in the Australian dollar will also be a relief for manufacturing exporters, and is even a positive for mining earnings since so many commodities are priced in US dollars. The local currency fell 10 per cent against its US counterpart last month.