Stages from prologue to road stage 10!

Well, not quite vanishes, but drops back a long way. In taking this stage Soler has certainly stolen a big win for Barloworld. The stage itself was made for an attack like this one. Indeed it's a hard way to start a day's racing - straight up - and it puts a breaking strain on immediately. In a small way it reminds me of stage 3 of the 1987 Canberra 2 day Tour (how's that for a comparison?): 100m of flat followed by a kilometre of 10% climb. Doesn't sound like much until you realise you aren't as warmed up as you should be and those legs of yours (or mine, actually) just aren't doing the job today. You end up chasing all day and never getting on terms.

At least it simplifies team tactics. If Astana don't have to protect Vinokourov then they can devote more attention to getting Kloden close to the lead on GC, where he stands a good chance of taking the overall. He's only 3 minutes 50 seconds back, after all. Yeah, OK, I'm dreaming. They should have stopped protecting Vino 2 days earlier...

So who really has a chance from here?

Well Rasmussen is well placed, obviously (as would Michael Rogers have been if he hadn't tumbled out). He isn't a strong TT rider like Rogers and he's taken the lead a long way out, so he'll want now to capitalise and bank another minute or 2 on the others as a buffer; and he now has the added pressure of countering every serious move . He may wait for Valverde or Evans to move first and just keep on terms until the Pyrenees - although that long TT will test his mettle, so gaining time in the climbs remains critical.

Alejandro Valverde has demonstrated so far both patience and attacking flair. But again we are a long way from Paris. He won't want to see his 2m 35secs gap to the Dane grow, so he'll stay in touch, and probably attack he sees a clear opportunity. He won't want Evans to come along for the ride, either. And he won't want to exhaust his reserves before the TT, so patience will be a necessary virtue.

Iban Mayo is another 4secs back on Alejandro, but poses no TT threat to anyone here. But everyone knows this and will expect to see him attack in the high stuff. So they'll tag along but be prepared to let him gain some time, too.

Not so with Cadel Evans, just a couple of seconds behind Mayo. He can climb and do a decent TT - and has won shorter tours by playing exactly this waiting game. He's one rider who Valverde will fear in the TT and will want to drop in the mountains. Staying with Valverde's attacks will be a prime goal for Cadel, but he needs to be looking to limit Rasmussen's gains too.

In the mix is Alberto Contador. If he's let off the leash by Disco then he's a real overall contender. Christophe Moreau is next and is the great French hope. He's certainly looking good for top 5-10 at this stage. Carlos Sastre and Andreas Kloden are 3mins 50 secs back from the lead Chicken and whilst either - and especially Kloden - could pull off a blindingly fast TT this is a big ask. They must not lose more time and need to gain time in order to have a shot at the yellow in Paris.

I'd say Levi Leipheimer is too far back, but again he can climb and can TT, he just doesn't seem to want to demonstrate it yet. He could be waiting for the right moment, but there are a lot of riders to pass on the way to Paris. Disco could play a counter-punching game with Levi and Alberto, so gaining big time in a brazen attack is certainly possible.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirchen, Astarloza, Kashechkin and Schleck making some moves over the next week, too. They have nothing to lose but plenty to gain. And Oscar Pereiro will be helping his own cause as well as teammate Valverde's with the old one-two act in the remaining mountains. And they are big mountains too with minutes to be gained.

Labels: Le Tour, Soler

OK, Rasmussen won the stage and claimed the overall, but it should have been Mick Rogers' day for yellow, really. He could see it, taste it.. then it disappeared around a sharp left bend. He apparently had to brake hard on a fast downhill and either locked a wheel or rolled a tyre. Take your pick of why - either way, he came down and went out. Just to add to the drama to the day O'Grady managed to fall hard - very hard - as well, and injury-ridden McEwen rolled to the end of the stage and handed in his number. On the other hand it was good to see Mayo perform well and indeed to see Rasmussen win and shake the race GC up again, leaving Aussie Evans to gain a few places as well. Moreau was also impressive. It was Bastille Day after all. Let's rest for a day and start afresh.

Labels: Le Tour, Rasmussen

Gerdemann, Linus. You must have heard of him. Won the first Alpine stage of Le Tour, 2007. Oh, that T-Mobile guy, the young one with the refreshing anti-doping stance. Oh yeah, and he won on Bastille Day - a German! Sacre Bleu! At least Sylvain Chavenal retained the spotted jersey... didn't he?

It was a shake-up, and a new name on the winner's list, but the GC contenders didn't engage. They remain poised, ready to strike though...

Labels: Gerdemann, Le Tour

Big Tom Boonen blasted back into the green jersey, with Freire, Zabel and Seb Chavenal close by... so I guess it was his turn. Oscar must be next, surely? Except it won't be on the next stage - July 14th - as that's reserved for French climbers/breakaway specialists only, or so the French would hope.

Cavendish took out Big Tom's rear derailleur with his front wheel, which locked Tom into his 11, whether he wanted it or not! Meanwhile Cavendish went backwards rapidly, another lesson hopefully learned (don't cross wheels with Tom). McEwen looked to drop off Van Summeren's wheel when the sprint got going, and once again lacked the kick and finish that he displayed on stage 1. He looks like he is simply opting out - perhaps with those injuries he sustained on stage 1 in mind - but only he really knows what's happening. Hushovd is somewhat injured with a painful neck and not quite getting on top of the pedals like he did. And Boonen is now green (again).

Sylvain Chavenal remains on top of the spotted jersey comp and will be one of the likely attackers on Bastille Day, along with the overall GC contenders. 4 categorised climbs - including cat 1 Columbiere must mean - surely - that Cancellara will be allowed to drop from the front and finally give up the golden fleece... which will free up a tired CSC squad to support Sastre and his ambitions instead. I bet they are really pleased about that - perhaps resting up a day or 2 ago would've been better? Whatever, I'm sure they know how they feel. For T-Mobile Rogers is well placed and Evans may have a go - he's been quiet but consistent; Leipheimer and Valverde are also waiting in the wings - and Astana will be looking to reverse recent fortunes, too. Indeed Kloden may well be the main man now with Vino clearly suffering from his fall. Disco may also have a trick up its sleeve. No matter what, it should be a real shake-up on GC.

Labels: Boonen, Le Tour

Well I believed him. I would have believed Oscar Freire, or even Zabel, too, if they'd been bold enough to say it. But Filippo Pozzato did say it, quite plainly, and then delivered. That, surely, is pretty special.

It was a tougher parcours that was made for the lighter-built sprinters, and indeed they hung in there grimly up and over those 8 categorised climbs. Whilst not exactly the Alps, it was tough enough to see off the more specialised sprinters like McEwen and Boonen, and especially Hushovd. With them out of the way the remaining fast men went for it, leaving Pippo to thread his way through the pack to a glorious win. Perhaps surprisingly after such a long, tiring defence of the lead Cancellara hung in there too, and as none of his closest rivals (especially Hushovd) made the effort to dig so deep he was rewarded once again with the golden fleece. And with most of the other top sprinters shelled on the last climb Zabel made off with the green. Not a bad script so far, eh?

You can add in Vinokourov's chain problem and subsequent fall with about 23km to go. He didn't look pretty afterwards. Despite losing some skin he remounted and did a TTT back, falling short of catching the leaders by just over a minute. Now this is definitely a problem for him, but not insuperable. He will have to attack in the mountains now, whereas he was only expected to attack before. It adds urgency to the event when you are suddenly 2 minutes off the overall. More seriously perhaps is that teammate and fellow contender for the overall Andreas Kloden clipped a wheel and fell as well, breaking a vertebra. Whilst definitely painful, it may not stop him from riding... however it's certainly a painful distraction, doubly so that Astana now has both of its contenders shopshoiled at the same time.

We'll have to see how Vino recovers. In the meantime there's another opportunity for the sprinters coming up, before we hit the higher stuff and the main game begins.

Labels: Le Tour, Pozzato

Bjorn Leukemans has given the Predictor-Lotto team a big win in the Tour of Austria. This was the queen stage - ie the one all of the climbers wanted to bag - so it's really quite special. (Makes me wonder why he's not supporting Cadel Evans at Le Tour, but I'm sure Horner will do the job even better - we hope.) Matt Lloyd clearly gave great support to Leukemans (or so I assume from the placings!) and on GC is both highest-placed Aussie and best of the Lotto riders. Should be inspirational for the team slogging away in France right now.

Drapac Porsche appears to have found - not unsurprisingly in this company - the going a bit tough, with 3 of them now lining up for the Lanterne Rouge.

Labels: Leukemans, Tour of Austria

OK, it was exciting, I admit. Yet it was again the old script - a break goes, they are left to ride on, dreaming; then the yellow jersey is threatened and his team has to work to keep the time gap down; and then the organised chaos of the serious chase begins, with the sprinters' teams aiming to catch the break a few kays out of town... you know this script, it's almost the same on every flat stage. But I said it was exciting, too, didn't I?

And it was compelling viewing. Although TV commentator and ex-racer Paul Sherwen gets confused at times with his archers, his arrows and his arrow-makers, let alone his kapelles and his kerkes, it's strangely watchable. The scenery flashes by, the riders eat and take their 'comfort stops'; they crash; they get on with the chase. There are intermediate sprints, time bonuses and speculation about who is working and who isn't; and that marvellous mobile medico, who seemed to give Thor excellent service if this stage is any indication. Perhaps Thor gets strategic rather than medical advice from the doc? They'll all be queuing up for his service on the next stage!

Which brings us to the sharp end of the race. It was a wide road with a few obstacles but nothing like the twists and turns and pave of yesterday. In the "old days" it would have been Cipo's team taking control to keep the speed up for the last 7-10 kays. But with Cipo a glorious fading memory and his successor, Alessandro, sidelined, it seemed more like chaos than control. It looked like Quickstep tried to take control, moving up on the right, but they couldn't; it looked also like Milram would do the same, and they did - exactly the same, moving up then f-f-fading away... at one stage Predictor Lotto's one-man-train took over and drove the pace, but it's obvious that McEwen's men don't have the firepower to take control, even if they wanted to; or even to lead Robbie into position, it seems. You could see McEwen being guided through the pack, sandwiched left and right, squeezing past fading lead-out men; but he couldn't launch, there was always someone blocking and inevitably he was too far back and pushed aside. It wasn't his day for that magical opening and his trademark opportunistic kick.

Perhaps they are injured, or simply tired? Predictor-Lotto may indeed be resting on their first-up stage win laurels, waiting now to support Cadel in the approaching Alps. But Quickstep don't have that excuse.
Nor do Milram, although again Zabel was mixing it. Instead it was Credit Agricole who took up the final lead-out duties with Julian Dean a powerhouse in the Steegman's style, launching Thor's thunderbolt into an open road. Hunter did great work to almost grab the prize but he left it just a bit too late. What with all of the switching, lurching and bumping going on it certainly looked exciting; although that long camera lens does compress the perspective somewhat dramatically, it was hairy. And Thor took his first win of this tour.

Now for question time. Firstly, was it in the Quickstep script that Steegmans beat Boonen over the line, or is Boonen somewhat off-colour? I say the latter, but only Tom can really say.

Secondly, will Thor grab an intermediate or 2, win the next stage and take yellow off Cancellara's shoulders? What do I think? Looking at the next stage with its 8 categorised (but admittedly not severe) climbs I see some pigs flying past...

I'd be looking to CSC to block Thor, but I suspect the rolling-road opportunists will be salivating at the thought of a few hills and already plotting their escape. Which of course means taking time off Cancellara as well as big Thor. Either CSC will dig deep and defend grimly or we'll see someone, probably not an overall contender, bolt from the pack and seize the day - and the yellow jersey.

Labels: Hushovd, Le Tour

That other Tour - the Austrian one that gives the ProTour riders who didn't make the main game in France something challenging to do is still proving to be worth a look. For the Aussies it's a race of attrition, and a tough ask indeed in this wild, cold weather and mountainous terrain. It's meant to be summer, isn't it?

Drapac Porsche are doing well but clearly using up their resources to keep in the game. But everyone is suffering. Phil Thuaux continues to bring up the rear on GC but he's obviously playing the team game here, as is Robert McLachlan, just 10mins ahead of him overall. Matt Lloyd is best Aussie for Predictor-Lotto, 5 minutes off the lead. Frankly I'd rather be at home watching Le Tour on TV, and I bet a few of these guys are thinking the same...

Labels: Tour of Austria

Fabian Cancellera, we salute you! In a real blast from a now distant past yellow jersey Cancellara attacked the sprinters inside a kilometre to go, caught the break and held everyone off to the line. It was opportunistic, smart, brave... and very, very risky. It was a racer's move. These are the qualities that have been missing since Indurain began his systematic 5-tour assault on Le Tour, and missing in action during those 7 long, dark and clinically dull Armstrong years. If only this guy could climb!!

How did he do it? The day was long and slow, and he rested up front as the sprinters' teams pulled the break back. As they closed on their quarry they hit some pave and chose to slow rather than risk another pile-up. In that moment of hesitation the 2006 Paris-Roubaix champion realised his opportunity. A slowing pack, a break to chase, fresh legs and a chance to take a flyer, win the stage and grab some time bonuses. An opportunity, sure, but should the yellow jersey really dare to attack the peleton, especially when the sprinters are hungry for the win? Not for decades have we seen a champion like this, someone who dares to risk his yellow jersey with a brazen attack against the entire field. This was not an Indurain, carving away minutes in a TT and defending it grimly in the mountains; or a similarly dry and expressionless Big Tex taking on the mountain goats at the end of a hard stage. No, this was a Merckx or an Hinault, daring to take on all comers! As I said, if only he could grow wings and fly up the climbs as well!

In other news, Zabel managed to get 2nd with a trademark throw, and McEwen managed to get shut out by a wayward Robbie Hunter. It was a miserable day for the sprinters but a great day for cycling.

Labels: Cancellara, Le Tour

Some good free tour videos available from Cycling.tv; if you want to check out this link you'll get a Stage 1 wrap-up.

Labels: Cycling.tv, Le Tour

Best we note that Aussies Sam Hill and Tracey Hannah have each had a win in their respective World Cup MTB Downhill events.. and remarkably that Drapac-Porsche development squad rider Stuart Shaw (10th) was best placed Aussie in a wet and wild Stage 2 of the Tour of Austria. Bravo! Plenty of good riders dropped on this stage, and local Point Clare rider and CCCC member Phil Thuaux is either suffering from supporting Stuart during the stage, the bad weather, illness, or perhaps the sheer effort of the stage itself, coming in 17 minutes behind the leader. Did he make the time limit? He's Lantern Rouge at the moment.

Labels: Aussies, Hannah, Hill, MTB, Shaw, Thuaux, Tour of Austria

I forgot to mention that Aussie Brett Lancaster fell on stage 1 as well... and now just about everyone managed to fall or be blocked by the pile-up at the finish in Gent. No real surprise that home-town-boy Steegmans won, he looked like a future winner last year with his awesome, rocketing leadouts for McEwen and here he was arriving centre stage in front of his home crowd. It was just a matter of timing - let him go late enough and no-one's going to get past - not even Tom Boonen.

McEwen looked sore after his Stage 1 prang, and that uphill finish can't have been good for the wrist or the knee. What he didn't need was to lose his lead out man, Fast Freddy, who appeared to get tangled up in the big smash. McEwen himself was hit by a flying bike and only just escaped - at first I thought he went down when Zabel pulled his foot and caused the following rider to veer hard right. But it was the green Liquigas jersey of Quinziato instead. In comparison Quickstep seemed to escape damage, clearly a help to Steegmans and Boonen in in the end. That's bike racing.

We'll have to see who wakes up fresh and who wakes up sore to judge the full impact. Cancellara looked OK but he may have lost some domestiques - but then again, which team hasn't? Some will be battered and bruised but will hang in there at less than 100%, which will open up possibilities for the riders who are unscathed and can ride without (additional) pain. It's a long, long 236km stage so having a rest could be on some riders' minds. So expect breakaway action and another chase - but how complete and motivated to chase will the sprinters' teams be? Hey, it's their job - of course they'll chase.

Labels: Gent, Le Tour, Steegmans

The Aussies keep bouncing back. First O'Grady falls in the prologue, now it's McEwen's turn. At least Robbie had the team support to get him back to the front, and the extra endorphins from the wrist and knee injury to supercharge him... yet it was still amazing to see him rocket past the other sprinters and take the win. With that one under his belt he notches up 12 stage wins, equalling the mighty Zabel.

McEwen's noted for pushing on with injuries, even broken bones, so I suspect he'll lay low for a few days, keep out of trouble and look for another win when the nervousness of the peloton has settled down a bit. Which leaves some room for Boonen and Hushovd to make amends. Or he may wake up stiff and sore, perhaps get an x-ray and just call it quits. I hope not, but it's hard to ride around France with a badly swollen wrist...

Tomorrow must be Boonen's day in Belgium, but Hushovd will be looking to change that. Breaks may happen but will get closed down by the sprinters' teams, unless an almighty crash splinters the field. It's happened before, and we can only hope it doesn't happen tomorrow (or today, really, given time differences).

So we now have... Fabian Cancellara holding onto yellow with Kloden 13 secs behind. By breaking away and chasing intermediate points David Millar has moved up to 3rd overall. Which moves George Hincapie down to 4th. Then Wiggins, Gusev, Karpets and the first of the sprinters,Thor Hushovd. Hushovd needs a win to get him within shot of the yellow jersey, so expect some fire tomorrow.

Next is Vinokourov, still well-placed to fight it out overall with Kloden over weeks 2 and 3, with Thomas Dekker an interesting wild card at 31secs off the lead. He could give it a go in the Alps. Of the other contenders we have Cadel Evans at 36secs, and Michael Rogers and Oscar Pereiro at 37secs. Levi Leipheimer, Denis Menchov and Alejandro Valverde remain comfortably under the minute but will be looking to gain time in week 2.

If everything remained as it is, no-one crashed or got sick, no-one rode out of their skin and amazed us (like Millar or Hincapie, or Dekker), and if no-one took a flyer and got away then we'd have Kloden winning the tour overall, followed by Vino 2nd, Evans 3rd and Rogers 4th. Pereiro would be 5th, then Leipheimer and Valverde. It actually sounds believable... but will Pereiro team up with Valverde and one-two the rest in the mountains? Will Vino settle for 2nd or will Kloden hand the lead to his captain? Will T-Mobile finally get it together and use their strength to boost Rogers up the order, and does Evans have what it takes to match the mountain goats and take a big lead out of the Pyrenees? Ahh, so much to watch during this beautiful race...

Labels: Le Tour, McEwen